Tag Archives: west bracket

Can the La Salle Expedition continue on to the Elite Eight?

Posted by gruesomegreg on

Y’know, were it not for my West bracket being completely busted–oh, and picking Gonzaga to win it all–I might be in decent shape in my office pool.  Although I went 0-4 in the West region, I otherwise batted .750 in the third round as my other six Elite Eight picks all made it to the Sweet 16.  But alas, my national champs bowed out early, so as it stands I’m in 24th, albeit with a commanding lead over 25th (aka last) place.  Too bad the prize money only goes to the top three…

That said, since my bracket wouldn’t voom if I put four thousand volts through it, I’m throwing my support behind the La Salle Explorers.  If I have any hope of finishing, oh, in the top 20 or so, I’ll need everybody’s West region to be as bleedin’ demised as mine.  And hey, it’s not entirely unprecedented for a team to go from the First Four to the Final Four, either.  La Salle need look no further than two spots up the A-10 standings to see the VCU Rams, who burst onto the national scene when they did so two years ago.  Did I mention that La Salle defeated VCU–in the latter’s gym, no less?  Of course, they weren’t playing against the 2011 team…

But they do face a relatively easy opponent in the Sweet 16, with Wichita St. being the third-lowest seed to advance to the fourth round.  Of course even on paper, it’s hardly a cakewalk, as Wichita State has four more wins on the season than the A-10 also-rans–to say nothing of the fact that they blitzed 20th-ranked Pitt and knocked out the top team in the country during the tournament’s opening weekend.  WSU may have only shot 33 per cent from 3-point land (how appropriate!) on the year, but they upped that number to 50 in shocking the Zags last Saturday.  And while they’re hardly the highest-scoring team in the nation, they totally play some tough D, holding both highly-touted opponents under 36 per cent from the field.

La Salle doesn’t put up quite as many points as Gonzaga, but they still averaged 72.4 ppg against a deep A-10 conference that sent five teams to the tourney (mind you, the fourth-place Explorers are the last ones standing).  I wasn’t so big on them after their second-half squeaker vs K-State, but then they proved they could run ‘n gun with the Runnin’ Rebs, matching the SEC tourney champs bucket-for-bucket in their third-round win.  Because who doesn’t wanna see a four-guard squad from North Philly in the Final Four?  I’m sure Bill Raftery would leave some Depends on the deck for his alma matter, let’s put it that way…  La Salle 72, Wichita State 69.

Of course, the Upset Special Game of the Night doesn’t tip till 10:17 pm (on the East Coast), so there are a few games to go before we get to see the future NCAA champs in action.  Here’s who I like in the other three contests:

7:15 pm: Miami over Marquette – Through their first two games, this Marquette team is starting to remind me of last year’s Kansas squad, a team that should’ve lost pretty much every regional game, but somehow managed to survive each time.  Of course, Kansas made it all the way to the national championship game in 2012, but I can’t see that happening this year for the Jayhawks–or the Golden Eagles, for that matter.  This Marquette team that barely squeaked past Butler and Davidson is about to meet a major roadblock in the ACC regular-season and tournament champs.  Arguably the top two-seed in the tourney, Miami was ranked as high as second during the season.  And sure, they’ve had some upsets along the way, but this is a team that bent Duke over, stole their anal virginity, took all their money, kicked their dog and burned their house down en route to a 90-63 thrashing in late January.  Marquette might wanna wear a collective ass-condom. ;)

7:47 pm: Arizona over Ohio State –  Speaking of barely surviving, the Fuckeyes (as the Fab Four used to call ‘em) needed a virtual buzzer-beater to beat Iowa State, a 12-loss team from the Big 12.  Their reward is a trip to Los Angeles, where Arizona ties run deep–and not just in the Mexican gangs.  The Wildcats have six players from the L.A. area, including starting forward Solomon Hill, who averages 13 points a game when he’s not playing in front of his folks.  Suffice to say there’ll be a lot of encouragement for the Pac-12 program, who are now my most-logical pick to win the West.  The heart says La Salle, but the brain’s telling me Arizona’s got this region.

9:45 pm: Syracuse over Indiana –  Holy upset special, Batman!  Gonzaga might have been the only one-seed not to make it to the Sweet 16, but my bracket has two more of them falling to four-seeds in this round.  The Hoosiers suffered a third-round scare against a Temple team that tied with La Salle in the A-10 standings, while only mustering 58 points on a mere 45 attempts.  Had the Owls been able to get it going from beyond the arc (3-24, hoot!), it might have been goodnight for the Big 10 champs.  Enter the Orange, a team that held its first two tournament foes to a mere 47 points per game.  Sure, they weren’t so impressive against Cal, but Syracuse still went 12 minutes–that’s an entire NBA quarter of basketball–without hitting a field goal, yet managed to win the game.  Hey, defense wins championships, right?  (I have ‘em losing to Miami in the next round though, heh heh.)

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It’s time to shock the Shockers into submission… Zag up!

Posted by gruesomegreg on

Gonzaga’s path to the Final Four just got a lot easier yesterday.  After they defeat Wichita State, GU will face either a 12 or a 13-seed in the Sweet 16.  And yes, I am saying they will beat State.  At least they better–the Zags are the only team left in my West bracket!

Granted, I didn’t see every second of the Shockers’ first-round win over Pittsburgh, since there were two other great games going on at the time.  But although the MVC runners-up cruised to victory, I saw a stretch in the second half that assured me of a Gonzaga win in the third round.

See, the Pitt Panthers have a seven-foot freshman centre from New Zealand by the name of Steven Adams.  The kid made the Big East All-Rookie Team, but is hardly a focal point of the Pitt offense, averaging almost as many rebounds (6.3) as points (7.2) per game.  But he nearly doubled his season average in the second-round loss, going for 13 points and 11 boards on 5-of-7 shooting.  Most of his scoring came in the second half, when his team, already down by quite a few points, decided to get him the ball.  On three successive possessions, he drove to the basket and picked up the hoop and the harm.  The Shockers couldn’t seem to stop him–and then I changed the channel to Memphis-St. Marys.

Now, Zags fans, who does the seven-foot, 250-pound international player remind you of?  Oh I dunno, a certain 2013 lottery pick, perhaps?  Of course, Kelly Olynyk has had similar stretches throughout the season where he took over a game and either kept or got the Zags back in it–including the start of the second half against Southern.  I just don’t see any way the Shockers can stop themselves from getting KO’ed.  They do have a seven-foot Nigerian centre, Ehimen Orukpe, but he only averages 15 minutes per game, in which his point total (2.8) barely eclipses the number of fouls he commits (2.1).  Methinks he’ll get banished to the bench in no time after a couple quick whistles guarding the best Canadian big man since Bill Wennington (which isn’t really saying much).

Not that Orukpe sees much more court time than Officer Krupke, anyways.  (Sorry, I couldn’t resist.)  Wichita State is a three-guard team that most commonly employs a frontcourt of Carl Hall, who looks smaller on TV than his listed 6’8″, and Cleanthony Early, also listed at 6’8″–and a mere 215 pounds.  The Gonzaga bigs’ll eat ‘em for breakfast like a pound of Canadian Bacon!  And since the Shockers’ O runs through their not-quite-as-bigs, the Zags can assign Gary Bell to Malcolm Armstead, the lone backcourt scoring threat.  Will Bell playing lockdown D and the Shockers’ posts in foul trouble, they shouldn’t match their 69-point season average.  Gonzaga 78, Wichita State 62.

Like I said, my West bracket is all but busted, with only Gonzaga staying alive.  But in every other region, I had three of my four Sweet 16 teams advance to the third round.  With the exception of New Mexico’s early exit, my Elite Eight is otherwise intact.  So I can still salvage this bracket–if all my Final Four teams advance.  Here’s who else I like today:

12:15 pm: Michigan over VCU –  This could be a tough test for the Wolverines, as Virginia Commonwealth posted one of the biggest blowouts of the second round–in a 5-12 matchup, no less!  But suffice to say the Maize-and-Blue are a significant step up in competition from the Akron Zips, who looked like more of a 16-seed than Southern (or Western Kentucky, for that matter).  When facing top-quality competition, the Rams haven’t fared as well, losing to Duke, Missouri and Saint Louis–all at their own gym, no less!  Sure, Michigan might have stumbled down the stretch, but this is still a Top-10 team that averaged almost as many points per game (75.2) as its high-flying opponent (78.0).  I like the more battled-tested team in this one–all the way to the Final Four, in fact.  Hey, Georgetown’s already gone and Kansas barely squeaked past a 16-seed.  The winner of this game could certainly win the South…

2:45 pm: Michigan State over Memphis –  Did I mention that both the Wolverines and the Spartans are playing at The Palace at Auburn Hills, in nearby suburban Detroit?  The de-facto homecourt advantage helped both Great Lakes State schools to relatively comfortable second-round wins.  On the other hand, Memphis was a rare missed Mouthguard Dellavadova buzzer-beater away from going home, proving my theory that the C-USA champs are overrated.  Their tournament run ends today.

5:15 pm: Louisville over Colorado State –  Some say the Midwest bracket was unkind to the one-seed, but I still think the Big East champs will easily dispose of the second-placed team in the Mountain West.  Boy, would that bust a lotta brackets if Louisville lost, though!  (Me, I’ve got ‘em in my Final Four…)

6:10 pm: Arizona over Harvard –  I must admit, I had neither of these schools advancing in my bracket, as I’d picked Belmont, not Harvard, to pull the second-round upset.  That said, I don’t think Harvard’s small-ball can match up with the length and athleticism of an Arizona program that has a seven-footer at centre and a pair of 6’7″ swingmen who can score in double-figures.  Did I mention that the Crimson are ranked 334th in the country in rebounding?  If the treys aren’t falling, they won’t get too many second chances.  Alas, with the bottom half of my West bracket busted, I could easily see Arizona meeting Gonzaga in the Elite Eight…

7:10 pm: Saint Louis over Oregon –  I actually had picked Oklahoma State in this matchup, but the Ducks easily disposed of them on Thursday.  Likewise, the Billikens made quick work of a New Mexico State squad that plays three Canadians, holding their opponent to a mere 44 points.  I can’t say I’m too familiar with either team, but seeing as Saint Loo kept VCU in check not once, but twice in conference play, they must have a pretty stifling D.  So I’m gonna go with one of the most bizarre names in team sports.  If there was a bracket for most-intimidating moniker, the Billikens would never make it past the first round.  Mind you, neither would the Oregon Ducks. :P

7:45 pm: Butler over Marquette –  I actually had Davidson in my Sweet 16, and were it not for a bone-headed press-break play, they’d be facing Butler tonight instead of Marquette.  The Eagles’ narrow escape did nothing to inspire my confidence in them going forward, so I like Butler in its familiar underdog role here.

9:40 Syracuse over California –  Like I said the other day, Big Sky champs Montana were chumps, the best of the bunch in a very weak basketball conference.  But still, holding them to 34 points is pretty impressive, as was the Orange’s 47-point margin of victory, eclipsing even VCU.  Does such a one-sided slaughter really prepare the team to play a very live underdog in Cal?  Maybe not, but after facing Pitt, Georgetown and Louisville in back-to-back-to-back days during the Big East tournament, I wouldn’t doubt Syracuse’s level of readiness.  And while their victory over UNLV was impressive, I still consider Cal to be one of the weakest at-large teams in the field.  The Cuse might not win by 47 tonight, but 17 points?  I could see that.

Well that was a little too close for comfort…

Posted by gruesomegreg on

A 9-7 record on day one of the tournament does not a championship bracket make.  I just narrowly missed on a couple of my upset picks yesterday, namely Saint Mary’s and Davidson, while Harvard busted the bottom half of my West bracket.  See, I knew a 14 would beat a 3 this year, I just didn’t know which one.

Of course, my entire bracket would’ve been toilet paper had Gonzaga gone down to Southern.  Sure, they played in a crappy conference, but they sure seemed stronger than your typical 16-seed to me (case in point: NC A&T).  That said, while the SWAC champs kept the game close with their outside shooting, the better team won yesterday.  Kelly Olynyk took over early in the second half, as the Jaguars didn’t have anyone who could stop the seven-footer from getting to the rim.  And late in the game, Kevin Pangos shone with some deft passes and big baskets–including the two free-throws that sealed the deal.  Captain Canuck (hey, Steve Nash hasn’t played for the national team since 2004!) tends to play his best ball in big games, though he has a bad habit of stinking up the gym the next night.  Then again, he’s still only a sophomore…  And even if Pangos stumbles, there’s always room for Olynyk.  Seeing as their second-round opponent’s best big man is generously listed at 6’8″ (they have a seven-footer, but he only plays 15 minutes a game), methinks KO will TKO the Shockers in Round 3.

As for my bracket, well, if I’m going to ride Gonzaga all the way to the office-pool crown, I’m gonna hafta hit a few more of these picks today:

12:15 pm: Duke over Albany –  Sure, the Dookies have lost to a 15 before.  Even before they fell to Lehigh last year, they made waves by barely squeaking past Belmont in ’08.  Of course, sandwiched between those two games are a national title and a pair of Sweet 16 appearances.  Aside from sporting one of the least-intimidating names in the tourney (Great Danes?  Really?), Albany only averages 64.4 points per game.  To upset the Devils, you’re gonna hafta put up 70+.  Sorry Fido.

12:40 pm: Ole Miss over Wisconsin –  Hey, we already had two 12-seeds advance yesterday, so why not a third?  Truth be told, Ole Miss was the lone 12-5 upset I had in my bracket, but I’m sticking with the SEC’s second-best team and their 78 ppg (seventh in the country) over a much less explosive (66.2) Wisconsin squad.

1:40 pm: Temple over N.C. State –  I went 1-1 in these 8-9 toss-ups yesterday, and it’s safe to say I don’t have the winner of this one advancing past Indiana in my bracket.  But I’m taking the Owls, a team that beast Syracuse and VCU and showed they could hang with Kansas and Butler.  The Wolfpack upset Duke in January, but some ugly losses to lesser ACC foes have me leaning the other way in this total crapshoot.

2:10 pm: Miami over Pacific –  Hey, the Tigers might be joining the WCC next season, but there’s no way I’d pick them over a Miami team that’s been ranked as high as number two.  In fact, I’ve got the Canes in my Final Four, and considering that this Pacific team lost by 18 to Gonzaga and 28 at Saint Mary’s, I’d expect nothing less than a blowout here.

2:45 pm: Cincinnati over Creighton — The 7-10 matchup can always be intriguing, and the committee has saved all four of them for today’s schedule.  These are the games that could make or break a bracket–especially since the winner of one of said contests has occasionally gone on to upset the two-seed in the next round.  Well,  I don’t see Cincy knocking off Duke, but despite being right in the middle of the Big East pack (9-9 in conference play), they’ve still beaten Pitt and Marquette, the latter of whom was considered a three-seed by the selection committee.  On the other hand, Creighton is a big fish in a small pond.  The #22 Blue Jays haven’t played a ranked opponent all year in the two-bid Missouri Valley Conference, and my most vivid memory of their team was them was getting whooped by Saint Mary’s (a game that wasn’t as close as its final score indicated).  Again, I’m not saying they couldn’t win this game–hell, they’re the best field-goal shooting team in America–but I’m still hoping I can hit on this upset pick.

3:10 pm: Kansas State over La Salle — Man, I’m glad this game is on Tru TV, so there’s no chance of Bill Raftery, La Salle’s most famous alum (and CBS’s most annoying commentator) describing it.  The Explorers (apparently, that’s what the team is called) won a play-in game over Boise State to be here, and have beaten Butler and VCU in A-10 play despite their gawd-awful rebounding numbers (31.7 per game, 292nd in the country).  K-State might not own the glass in this one (35.3 rpg), but the second-best team in the Big 12 should have no trouble otherwise stuffing the stat sheet.

4:10 pm: Indiana over James Madison — A cursory glance shows that James Madison, which finished fourth in the Colonial Athletic Association before winning the conference tournament, is not another Southern.  Their 21-14 record against a non-tournament-caliber field (aside from a season-opening 30-point loss to UCLA) warranted them winning a play-in game to get here.  How the top-ranked team in the country ended up with the toughest 1-16 matchup is beyond me, but I digress.  I don’t have Indiana in my Final Four, or even my Elite Eight, but I do have them beating James Madison in the second round.

4:40 pm: Illinois over Colorado –  Okay, I’ll admit that I might have underestimated the Pac-12, which went 3-0 yesterday with a pair of 12 seeds advancing.  But in this 7-10 matchup, I’m going with one of the two teams that actually beat both Gonzaga and Indiana this year.  Illinois’ senior leader Brandon Paul brings the noise to the tune of 16.6 points per game, and he nailed some big buckets (35 points, to be precise) in handing the Zags a rare home loss back in December.  As for the fifth-ranked team in the Pac-12, well, they should bring a loud, raucous, drunken cheering section to Austin, if nothing else.  These Buffs hog the ball like their seniors hog the beer bong at a tailgate–averaging a mere 10 assists per game.  Hey, pass that thing over here, will ya?

6:50 pm: Georgetown over Florida Gulf Coast –  With all the 7-10 matchups today, you’d think the committee could’ve drawn up a better prime-time schedule.  Instead we get two 2 vs 15s and a 3-14 whose 3-seed, Florida, are being placed in several brackets’ Final Four.  North Carolina-Villanova should be entertaining, if largely irrelevant–but I think I might skip this slate altogether.  (Hey, sometimes you need to take a break from drinking in front of the TV to go out and drink with other people!)  But speaking of Florida, I’ve got them beating Georgetown in the Sweet 16.  I trust that both teams will make it there without too much trouble…

7:15 pm: Ohio State over Iona –  Another 2-15 matchup that probably won’t even be close.  Some people like OSU to win the West, me I’ve got ‘em losing to Notre Dame in the third round.  Iona is actually the second-highest-scoring team in the country (80.2 ppg), but it would certainly shock the world if they were to win this one.  Their only tournament-caliber opponents were both part of the First Four–and La Salle actually beat these Gaels.

7:20 pm: Villanova over North Carolina –  The only toss-up of the early-evening slate sees the winner earn the right to lose to Kansas.  Nova isn’t fielding its strongest team, but to finish eighth in a conference where the top six teams are all ranked in the Top 25–and to post a winning record (10-8) in the process–is a reasonably impressive achievement.  In fact, the Wildcats’ resume includes wins over Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette and Georgetown, who could all advance to the Sweet 16.  UNC’s only win over a ranked team was against UNLV–and the Rebs lost in the first round.  Even if I’m taking the nine-seed, I don’t really see this as an upset.

7:27 pm: Florida over Northwestern State –  Northwestern State?  Really?  The Southland Conference (home of such powerhouse programs as Stephen F. Austin and Oral Roberts) champs only played one tournament team all season–and lost to Oklahoma–yet they’re a 14-seed?  Pretty sure Gonzaga could beat ‘em by more than six points, just sayin’.  Then again, so should Florida…

9:20 pm: San Diego State over Oklahoma — Speaking of the Sooners, Gonzaga beat ‘em by 25 back in November.  Their most impressive win was a home victory over Kansas, but they lost to Iowa State in the Big 12 quarterfinals.  Boomer Sooner’s mediocrity in the Big 12 is matched only by the Aztecs meh record in the Mountain West, which actually sent five teams to the tourney this year–three of whom have already gone home.  I admit, this is a total toss-up for me, but the OU squad that lost to Gonzaga in the Old Spice Classic couldn’t possibly have beaten Southern on its best day.  I don’t think they’ll beat SDSU today, either.

9:45 pm: Notre Dame over Iowa State – Now this 7-10 matchup is hardly a toss-up in my books.  The 23rd-ranked Irish have beaten Cincy, Villanova, Louisville, Pitt and Marquette in Big East play.  The Cyclones’ biggest feat might be that they took Kansas to overtime twice–but lost both times.  I’m not hating on the Big 12 or anything, but its fourth-ranked team also dropped games to Iowa and Texas Tech.  They’d never make it in the Big East–or even the Catholic 7. ;)

9:50 pm: Kansas over Western Kentucky –  Don’t get me wrong, as sure as the grass is green, the sky is blue and the mailman doesn’t deliver on Sundays, Kansas will be upset in the NCAA tournament.  I just don’t see it happening until the Sweet 16.  (Go Wolverines!)

9:57 pm: UCLA over Minnesota –  OK, so I was hating on the Pac-12 yesterday, but UCLA’s the only school from said conference that could actually steal recruits from Gonzaga.  (Whether or not they can keep them in school for more than one year might be a different story.)  They’re also the only Pac-12 team I had advancing past the second round–but good luck against Florida on Sunday.

And only eight remain…

Posted by gruesomegreg on

Wow, it looks like I nailed all my Sweet 16 predictions.  I guess when you remove all the mid-major unknowns and Cinderella stories from the equation, it gets a lot easier to see how things will play out.  And while I have three of my Final Four remaining, I’m buried in last place in my office pool, which sadly isn’t a round-by-round affair.  The tried-and-true formula of “three one-seeds and and underdog” seems to have held up so far–with the only problem being that Missouri wasn’t enough of an upset in the West bracket.  Should’ve known to go with someone lower than a two-seed…

Florida over Louisville, 4:30 pm Saturday - Fittingly enough, the Elite Eight opens with the West regional, in which a team seeded no higher than fourth will be advancing to the Final Four.  Louisville got here by beating top-seeded MSU, and I’ll admit that I didn’t see much of that one, but isn’t 57-44 a women’s basketball score?  On the other hand, the Gators continued their romp through the tournament, taking their step up in competition in stride, beating Marquette by 10 in a game that wasn’t really in doubt (they lead the entire second half).  Pitino may have taught Billy Donovan everything he knows, but I don’t think he’ll stop Florida’s impressive tournament run with his largely inexperienced squad.

Ohio State over Syracuse, 7:05 pm Saturday – I’ll admit that I have Syracuse in my Final Four, but they’ve had to dodge a couple bullets just to get here.  I mean, they narrowly avoided becoming the first one to lose to a 16, and it doesn’t get any closer than Thursday’s one-point win over Wisconsin.  On the other hand, OSU has been proving me wrong ever since I picked them to lose to Gonzaga, and their 81-66 win over Cincy in the Sweet 16 is probably their most impressive to date.  Truth be told, they split a pair of games against the Badgers in Big 10 play, but the Buckeyes are playing much better basketball than the Orange right now.  Looks like I’ll hafta tear another strip off my bracket…

Kentucky over Baylor, 2:20 pm Sunday – Another team that I had pegged to lose early, the Baylor Bears have proven me wrong, scratching and clawing their way to the Elite Eight.  But aside from their win over a happy-to-be-here Colorado team, it hasn’t been easy for the boys from Waco.  They got off to an impressive start against Xavier last nite, but took their foot off the gas, allowing the X-Men back into it.  They can’t afford to do the same against a Kentucky team that hasn’t let up the entire tournament, hitting the century mark in a 102-90 win over Indiana.  I’m not convinced that Baylor has enough gas in the tank to play a full 40 minutes at Kentucky’s pace.  Their run ends here.

North Carolina over Kansas, 5:05 pm Sunday - What was meant to be a marquee matchup suddenly doesn’t look so hot after both teams struggled to advance past double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16.  The Tar Heels’ troubles against a sound defensive Ohio squad fell largely on the shoulders of freshman point guard Stilman White, who had difficulties running the offense in the absence of Kendall Marshall.  My guess is that the latter won’t be back for this one–considering that he had his hand in a cast–which takes some of the oomph out of the UNC attack.  And yet, that deflating sound you hear isn’t coming from Carolina, but rather the Kansas locker room, as the Jayhawks barely eked out another ugly win.  While their comeback to beat Purdue was impressive, their win over NC State was anything but, as they all but handed the game to the Wolfpack in the final minutes.  Alas, an offense that averaged 75 points per game on the season hasn’t scored more than 65 in the tournament, and while they made it to the point where they won’t be upset, I definitely don’t think this Kansas team has what it takes to beat a better seed.  I just hope this game isn’t as ugly as the those two Sweet 16 scores might indicate…

The Madness resumes this evening with the first half of the Sweet 16…

Posted by gruesomegreg on

My bracket is busted, my Bulldogs are done, so there won’t be too much of a preamble to tonite’s predictions.  On Sunday, I went 6-for-8, but lost an Elite Eight team in my bracket as FSU fell to Cincinnati, leaving me with just five teams in contention–including three of my Final Four.  Mind you, only one of those spots is up for grabs tonite, as the bulk of the action occurs in my busted West bracket.  The one game I’ll be keeping an eye on is the earliest tipoff between Syracuse and Wisconsin.  The Orange have looked beatable against average competition, while the Badgers pulled out a tough win over Vanderbilt.  That being said…

7:15 pm: Syracuse over Wisconsin – I still like the Orange.  ‘Cuse has the size and length to match up well with Wisconsin, a team not known for its offensive outbursts (64 ppg on the season).  Sure, it would be nice to have Fab Melo for this one, but even without him, they should still git ‘r done.  I don’t see Syracuse as the first one-seed to lose.

7:47 pm: Louisville over Michigan State – Instead, I’m gonna bestow that honour on Sparty.  I actually had MSU losing in the second round in my bracket (which is to say the round of 32–the First Four is not a round in my books!) and while they didn’t meet Memphis as I’d expected, they still barely squeaked past a less-than-impressive Saint Louis squad, scoring just 65 points in a four-point win.  Sure, St. Louie does it with D, just like their hockey team–but the Big 10 champs did not look good against an A10 squad that hadn’t beaten a tournament-caliber team outside of conference until, well, they topped Memphis in the first round.  Granted, Louisville is lean on experience, but it’s not like Rick Pitino hasn’t been there before.  And besides, the Cards are the Big East tournament champs who’ve taken Syracuse and Kentucky down to the wire this season.  I like their chances for an upset.

9:45 pm: Ohio State over Cincinnati – Truth be told, I didn’t have either team at this stage in my bracket.  Although they knocked off my Elite Eight pick from the lower half of the East region, I haven’t been all that impressed with Cincy’s two tourney wins, in which they’ve averaged 63.5 points and a six-point margin of victory.  Sure, they’ve beaten most of the big names in the Big East, but all those wins were close–and most of them low-scoring.  On the other hand, OSU averages 75 per game, and they’ve hit their average in tourney wins over Loyola and Gonzaga (75.5 ppg, if you’re keeping track at home).  I actually had FSU over the Zags in this game, but I’m gonna flip things around and take OSU over the Cats.

10:17 pm: Florida over Marquette – Holy late start time Batman!  If some first-weekend contests started this late, it’s only because they were running behind schedule.  This one might not tip until 10:30 on the East Coast.  That said, it might be worth staying up late to watch one of the most impressive teams in the tourney.  Florida’s margin of victory in the first two rounds (35 points per game!) resembles that of their football team in non-conference play back when Tim Tebow called the shots.  The Gators have steamrollered both large and small-conference foes to get to the Sweet 16, where they’re receiving a large step up in competition from the Golden Eagles.  Marquette performed well in Big East play this season, earning themselves a top 15 ranking and a three-seed, though their non-conference schedule left a little to be desired.  They did, however, play bracket-busters Norfolk State at a neutral site in November–and eked out a two-point win.  The Gators beat ‘em by 34 last weekend.  If Florida puts in another convincing performance tonite, I would probably pencil them into an intriguing matchup with Kentucky in the Final Four.  After all, I’ve already crossed out Missouri on that side of the bracket…