I stand by my NCAA finals prediction: Michigan 77, Louisville 76

Posted by gruesomegreg on April 8, 2013

I actually had the foresight to put both the Cardinals and the Wolverines in my Final Four. Of course, the former was pretty much a no-brainer; the Big East regular-season and tournament champs had the number-one overall seed. But not many people picked Michigan, despite their top-10 ranking and placement in a region where notorious early-exiters Kansas and Georgetown were the top two seeds. Florida was the most popular selection in the South region, but the Maize-and-Blue dispatched them about as easily as Louisville triumphed over any team not from the state of Wichita.

Did I mention that I nearly nailed not only the margin of victory but the final score in the Lousiville-WSU game in my Final Four picks the other day? (I had Louisville 74, Wichita State 69, in case you’re too lazy to click the link.) Turns out I was way off on the Michigan-Syracuse score, but I did have the Wolverines prevailing–in my Final Four picks, that is. I had Gonzaga over Miami on my bracket, so my crystal ball clearly isn’t crystal clear. That being said, here’s what I wrote two days ago in regards to the NCAA final:

NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP

So, we’ve got the two teams with the most impressive tournament runs in the big game. Louisville’s average margin of victory in the tourney has been 21.75 points per game, and that includes the somewhat-close win over Oregon. Meanwhile, Michigan has defeated its first four opponents by an average of 16 points–and that number rises to 20 if you subtract the Kansas game. But let’s not take that game away, because it’s probably Michigan’s biggest win of the entire season. In the Sweet 16, they showed they could take everything that one of the top teams in the country threw at them, rope-a-dope ‘em for 30+ minutes, then explode with an improbable offensive flurry to win big in a hostile environment. (Notice how empty Cowboys Stadium was for the regional final after the Jayhawks had been sent home?) On the other hand, Louisville’s toughest test in the tourney could well be Wichita State…

Sure, the Duke win was impressive, but the Elite Eight was farther than the Devils have reached in five of the last 10 years. That Duke team looked like they were just happy to be here, especially after losing in the first round the year before. And in any case, I think we can call it a wash between Louisville’s 50-31 second half and Michigan’s 47-30 first half versus Florida. Bottom line is both teams deserve to be here, and I think it’s an upset if either one loses in the semis.

That being said, I think both teams also match up well in terms of length, depth and athleticism. In fact, Michigan’s second-generation superstars (Robinson, Hardaway et al) have a decided height advantage over Louisville’s smaller backcourt–which will obviously be without Kevin Ware. Here’s hoping the kid can walk again; that injury was pretty gruesome, a term I don’t use lightly. Meanwhile, can the likes of Gorgui Dieng keep super-frosh Mitch McGary in check? The Michigan rook saw major minutes against VCU and Kansas, putting up 46 points and 28 rebounds, and would have easily had another double-double versus Florida, had he not rested for most of the second half. (As it stands, he came just one rebound short.) The difference in this game could come down low, and the Wolverines have the revelation of the tournament in the post, soooo…

I’m not saying they’ll win by much, but I like Michigan. Here’s hoping they buck the recent trend of snore-tastic NCAA finals and give us a barn-burner that comes down to a Trey Burke, erm, trey at the buzzer. Michigan 77, Louisville 76.

…

Let’s just say I stand by my prediction. Both teams fought threw some adversity in the semis, but clearly punched their tickets to the Big Dance. The two schools haven’t met yet this season, and Michigan only faced one Big East foe before Syracuse, whereas Louisville is 0-0 against the Big 10, so it’s hard to get a head’s up on the head-to-head. Therefore, I really think this game could go either way–and I’m hoping it actually does come down to the buzzer.

About these ads

FINAL FOUR: Can the Wichita State Shockers shock the world? (No, probably not…)

Posted by gruesomegreg on April 6, 2013

Although I correctly predicted half of the Final Four participants, I had Gonzaga and Miami in the title game, so my bracket’s been busted for a while now. The best I could finish would be 21st in my pool, and possibly as low as 23rd (out of 25), if Louisville goes all the way. Of course, I had them losing to Gonzaga at this stage. Does it make me feel better knowing my team lost to the eventual regional champ? OK, maybe a little…

But while WSU tore through the West bracket, they certainly looked vulnerable in the Elite Eight, mailing it in early against Ohio State after amassing a big lead. With six minutes left to play, the Shockers went scoreless for the next three as OSU cut the deficit from 15 t0 eight, and got as close as four with two minutes remaining. If Wichita hung on to win, it’s largely because the Buckeyes only made two shots down the stretch–and one was with just six seconds left. Had they been facing Michigan instead, they of the amazing comeback against Kansas, it’s safe to say the Shockers would not be in Atlanta. But now that they’re here, can they pull off the most-shocking upset of the tournament? Read on…

6:09 pm: Louisville over Wichita State – Sorry Shockers, but your run ends here. As much as a Wichita win would bust half the brackets in the country, I think the Louisville press might be a bit too much for WSU. This is a team, after all, that blew Duke outta the water in the second half of their regional final, putting 50 points on the board in the process. Louisville simply has too much length, too much talent, too much depth for the undersized Shockers squad–to say nothing of their full-court press. The only way I can see State pulling off the upset is if they can run-and-gun with the Cards. In fact, the only team to lose by less than 10 to Louisville in the past month was Oregon, who pushed the tempo throughout… though they still couldn’t put enough points on the board. But that’s doesn’t seem to be Wichita’s game; this team tends to win with defense, although they have hit 70 throughout the tourney. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll be rooting for the underdog–and I think this game will be closer than people expect–but Louisville 74, Wichita State 69.

8:49 pm: Michigan over Syracuse – The early tip features a giant-slayer against the tourney’s top seed, and thus makes for better TV, but we’ve arguably got two giant-slayers here. Michigan, of course, had that miraculous comeback to beat Kansas in overtime, whereas Syracuse simply shut down Indiana with its unique zone defense. For the Cuse, it’s all about the D–they followed that Hoosier lockdown by holding Marquette to a mere 39 points, while only scoring 55 themselves. In fact, aside from an easy first-round win against an over-matched Montana team, the Orange haven’t topped 66 points in a tournament game. Though their season scoring average has been inflated by a soft non-conference schedule (ie 108-56 over Monmouth, 96-62 over Central Connecticut State), most of their tough Big East games have been in the 60s. In fact, they’ve even been 39ed themselves, losing by 22 in their last-ever visit to Georgetown. (They would get their revenge, however, in a 58-55 overtime squeaker in the conference tourney.)

On the other hand, Michigan often pushes the tempo into the 70s, or even the 80s. After all, it took 87 points to upset Kansas. And the most exciting game of this year’s tournament was sandwiched between a pair of 20-point blowouts of solid VCU and Florida squads. If Syracuse has been squeaking through the tourney like a 14, not a four-seed, Michigan has nearly been as dominant as the top team in the Midwest region, y’know, the one that erased a 16-point deficit to beat the Cuse in the Big East final–by 17 points! Hmm, where have we seen that kinda comeback before? Michigan 75, Syracuse 64

NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP

And then there were eight… including Wichita State!

Posted by gruesomegreg on March 30, 2013

While there were some major upsets in the early rounds of the NCAA tournament, by the time you get to the regional finals, typically only the top seeds remain. Not necessarily the number ones, mind you; there is only one one-seed left in this year’s tournament. But every other surviving squad is seeded no higher than fourth–except for Wichita State.

The ninth-seeded Shockers have certainly lived up to their moniker with three impressive victories in the tournament. They’ve scored at least 72 points in each win, and sandwiched a six-point squeaker over top-ranked Gonzaga between two games where they held opponents under 60. Which is not to diminish the fact that they beat the top-ranked team in the country, making the Zags the first one-seed to fall. (Yeah, I don’t really wanna talk about it.)

Runners-up in the Missouri Valley Conference, WSU dropped two of its three meetings against Creighton, including the conference championship game. They also suffered back-to-back-to-back losses in MVC play against the likes of Indiana State, Northern Iowa and Southern Illinois. But aside from that stretch, they’ve beaten pretty much everybody they faced–except for those pesky Evansville Aces, who handed them two losses. So how did a mid-major also-ran get to be amongst the big dogs?

De-fense! *clap clap* De-fense! *clap clap* Aside from an ugly 91-79 loss to their main conference rivals, a 94-79 shootout win over Detroit and two other high-scoring conference games, Wichita State has held just about every opponent under 70, their defensive masterpiece being a 73-39 win over Bradley in which they held the Braves to just 32-per-cent shooting. Their impregnable fortress has held up during the tourney, with no foe hitting more than 36 per cent of its shots. In fact, Pitt, Gonzaga and La Salle all shot between 35.2 and 35.7 per cent from the field against WSU. Now that’s defensive consistency!

That said, the Shockers’ Great Wall of Bricks could be severely tested by the second-seeded Ohio State Buckeyes, who average 70 points per game on 46.5-per-cent shooting. If Wichita State has earned a reputation as the defensive wizards of the tournament, Ohio State has become known for its escape artistry, hitting three-pointers in the dying seconds to pull off two narrow victories. And while they’ve consistently scored in the 70s during the tourney, OSU is also no stranger to the low-scoring, hard-fought contest. Their win over Wisconsin in the Big 10 final was a 50-43 stinker in which both teams shot below 20 per cent from the three-point line. And yet, the Buckeyes still prevailed.

That being said, I think a tightly-defended contest works in the nine-seed’s favour. Wichita State has shown the ability to heat up from behind the arc, with nobodies like Fred Van Vleet lighting up rainbows late in games. But I’m not sure they can out-muscle one of the top teams from the uber-physical Big 10, so I don’t envision a final score in the 50s. This one could come down to another near buzzer-beater–in which case, advantage Buckeyes. Hey, they’ve already been there, done that, twice. Ohio State 72, Wichita State 69.

Here’s who I like for the rest of the weekend…

Saturday, 4:30 pm: Marquette over Syracuse – Speaking of escape acts, Marquette also survived two early scares in the tournament. Forget winning by three at the buzzer, the Golden Eagles beat Davidson and Butler by three points combined before rolling over a sluggish Miami squad (that I had going all the way to the final) in the Sweet 16. With the Orange knocking off top-seeded Indiana on Thursday, it sets up a Big East battle for the Final Four, which means these two teams have faced each other already. In fact, that game also went down to the wire, with Marquette winning 74-71. It was Syracuse who barely beat the buzzer with a three-pointer, but that only cut the deficit to two, and after a made free-throw, they simply didn’t have enough time left to get a shot off. But hey, it’s not like Marquette hasn’t benefited from some late-game mistakes by its tournament opponents, either. Not only have they been there, done that in the tourney–they’ve also done it against the Cuse, so I gotta give the edge to the Eagles.

Sunday, 2:20 pm: Michigan over Florida – This was the only Elite Eight matchup that I successfully predicted in my bracket–and it just barely held up. I actually moved up one spot in my pool (to 23rd place) by picking Michigan over Kansas, but it took one heck of a comeback to get that one right. The aptly-named Trey Burke had a Kelly Olynyk-like performance, stuffing the score sheet in the second half after going scoreless in the first. And man, did the kid from Columbus hit some deep 3s! Not only was it the most impressive comeback of the tourney, but one of the most exciting games as well. And knocking off Kansas really adds to the Wolverines’ resume. On the other hand, the Gators have had a relatively easy route to the Elite Eight, knocking off a 14, an 11 and a 15-seed. Their last tough test came in the SEC final–where they lost to Ole Miss. They might have ended FGCU’s run, but you still gotta figure Michigan has all the momentum heading into this one, and I like UM to advance.

Sunday, 5:05 pm: Louisville over Duke – Alas, the Midwest was the only region where the top two teams made it to the final. In fact, there were very few upsets on that side of the bracket, aside from Oregon’s (somewhat) unexpected run to the Sweet 16. As it stands, the winner of this one ought to be considered the Final Four favourite, although there won’t be any easy outs from here on in. While I had Duke losing to MSU in my bracket, I still like Louisville here. Oregon offered a bit of a test last night, but the Cardinals still led from start to finish. Could Duke still pull off the slight upset? I suppose so, but they’ve been rather unimpressive thus far against opposition that’s played poorly. Let’s see how they handle the Louisville press.

More Sweet 16 picks from someone who doesn’t know shit about the Sweet 16…

Posted by gruesomegreg on March 29, 2013

So last night, I nailed the Syracuse-Indiana matchup, correctly predicting that the stifling Cuse D would be too much for the Big 10 champs to handle. Mind you, I also had La Salle, Arizona and Miami winning that evening. In fact, I had Miami losing to Gonzaga in the title game when I first filled out my bracket. Instead of anally sodomizing Marquette as expected, the Canes simply screwed the pooch in an ugly 71-61 loss. And with that, the chances of finishing any higher than 20th in my office pool simply went out the window.

That being said, the top half of my bracket is still in pretty decent shape, with Michigan and Louisville in my Final Four. The latter is likely a no-brainer–a loss to Oregon would be the biggest upset of the tournament not involving FGCU. Meanwhile, I like the Wolverines over Kansas. I really don’t think this year’s Kansas is last year’s Kansas. And speaking of FGCU, well… here’s who I’ve got in tonight’s matchups:

7:15 pm: Louisville over Oregon – The Ducks might have been dissed as a 12-seed after winning the Pac-12 tourney, and they played with a chip on their shoulders (do Ducks have shoulders?) in romps over Saint Louis and OK State. But they’ll be facing a far superior test in the Big East champs, the overall number-one seed. Louisville stormed through the first two (all-inclusive) rounds of the tournament, putting 161 points on the board with an average margin of victory of 28.5. Oregon might be a step up in competition, but not too big a step. The Cards should still take ‘em by 20.

7:37 pm: Michigan over Kansas — Last year’s Jayhawks eked their way to the title game, but c’mon, everybody knows not to pick Kansas in the tournament, right? Though they really turned it on in the second half to send UNC packing (for the second straight year), the Hawks now face a much tougher foe in Michigan, arguably the strongest four-seed in the tourney–although Syracuse might beg to differ. Like the Orange, the Maize-and-Blue spent a lot of the early part of the season ranked in the top five, but stumbled down the stretch, albeit not as badly as their fellow four-seed. But with two dominating wins in the opening weekend, including an absolute clamp-down of the high-flying VCU Rams, holding them to just 53 points, I’m starting to think that Michigan could… go… all… the… way! (To the Final Four, anyways.)

9:45 pm: Michigan State over Duke – That’s right, I’ve got both major Michigan schools in my Elite Eight. It might be a down year for manufacturing, but basketball has never been better in the Great Lakes State. Of course, Duke is always a great program, but they’ve only made it past the Sweet 16 twice in the past 10 years. As a matter of fact, the Devils have lost in this round in five of the last 10 tournaments. On the other hand, MSU is no stranger to tournament success, appearing in three of the last eight Final Fours, although they haven’t won it all since 2000. For what it’s worth, I think their run ends in the Elite Eight against the same team that knocked ‘em out of last year’s tourney. Duke, meanwhile, should just be happy they didn’t lose to a 15-seed again.

9:57 pm: Florida over Florida Gulf Coast – Speaking of 15-seeds, I was somewhat surprised to see that FGCU is the first 15 to make the Sweet 16. Granted, we don’t get 15-2 upsets every year, but the winner of said game goes on to face either a seven or a 10-seed, which should be an easier opponent. And yet, no one had ever pulled off the double upset until the little school from the Atlantic Sun came around to bust up some brackets (c’mon though, Georgetown is another perennial tournament stinker!). That being said, while they’ve certainly put their program on the map, I think the Eagles’ run ends tonight against the SEC champs. There are only seven teams in America who shoot better than the Gators, and Florida averages just one fewer point per game than Florida Gulf Coast–against much stiffer competition, mind you. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll still be cheering for the underdog; but unlike last night, I won’t be picking them to win. Maaaan, La Salle sure shat the bed, didn’t they?

Can the La Salle Expedition continue on to the Elite Eight?

Posted by gruesomegreg on March 28, 2013

Y’know, were it not for my West bracket being completely busted–oh, and picking Gonzaga to win it all–I might be in decent shape in my office pool. Although I went 0-4 in the West region, I otherwise batted .750 in the third round as my other six Elite Eight picks all made it to the Sweet 16. But alas, my national champs bowed out early, so as it stands I’m in 24th, albeit with a commanding lead over 25th (aka last) place. Too bad the prize money only goes to the top three…

That said, since my bracket wouldn’t voom if I put four thousand volts through it, I’m throwing my support behind the La Salle Explorers. If I have any hope of finishing, oh, in the top 20 or so, I’ll need everybody’s West region to be as bleedin’ demised as mine. And hey, it’s not entirely unprecedented for a team to go from the First Four to the Final Four, either. La Salle need look no further than two spots up the A-10 standings to see the VCU Rams, who burst onto the national scene when they did so two years ago. Did I mention that La Salle defeated VCU–in the latter’s gym, no less? Of course, they weren’t playing against the 2011 team…

But they do face a relatively easy opponent in the Sweet 16, with Wichita St. being the third-lowest seed to advance to the fourth round. Of course even on paper, it’s hardly a cakewalk, as Wichita State has four more wins on the season than the A-10 also-rans–to say nothing of the fact that they blitzed 20th-ranked Pitt and knocked out the top team in the country during the tournament’s opening weekend. WSU may have only shot 33 per cent from 3-point land (how appropriate!) on the year, but they upped that number to 50 in shocking the Zags last Saturday. And while they’re hardly the highest-scoring team in the nation, they totally play some tough D, holding both highly-touted opponents under 36 per cent from the field.

La Salle doesn’t put up quite as many points as Gonzaga, but they still averaged 72.4 ppg against a deep A-10 conference that sent five teams to the tourney (mind you, the fourth-place Explorers are the last ones standing). I wasn’t so big on them after their second-half squeaker vs K-State, but then they proved they could run ‘n gun with the Runnin’ Rebs, matching the SEC tourney champs bucket-for-bucket in their third-round win. Because who doesn’t wanna see a four-guard squad from North Philly in the Final Four? I’m sure Bill Raftery would leave some Depends on the deck for his alma matter, let’s put it that way… La Salle 72, Wichita State 69.

Of course, the Upset Special Game of the Night doesn’t tip till 10:17 pm (on the East Coast), so there are a few games to go before we get to see the future NCAA champs in action. Here’s who I like in the other three contests:

7:15 pm: Miami over Marquette – Through their first two games, this Marquette team is starting to remind me of last year’s Kansas squad, a team that should’ve lost pretty much every regional game, but somehow managed to survive each time. Of course, Kansas made it all the way to the national championship game in 2012, but I can’t see that happening this year for the Jayhawks–or the Golden Eagles, for that matter. This Marquette team that barely squeaked past Butler and Davidson is about to meet a major roadblock in the ACC regular-season and tournament champs. Arguably the top two-seed in the tourney, Miami was ranked as high as second during the season. And sure, they’ve had some upsets along the way, but this is a team that bent Duke over, stole their anal virginity, took all their money, kicked their dog and burned their house down en route to a 90-63 thrashing in late January. Marquette might wanna wear a collective ass-condom.

7:47 pm: Arizona over Ohio State – Speaking of barely surviving, the Fuckeyes (as the Fab Four used to call ‘em) needed a virtual buzzer-beater to beat Iowa State, a 12-loss team from the Big 12. Their reward is a trip to Los Angeles, where Arizona ties run deep–and not just in the Mexican gangs. The Wildcats have six players from the L.A. area, including starting forward Solomon Hill, who averages 13 points a game when he’s not playing in front of his folks. Suffice to say there’ll be a lot of encouragement for the Pac-12 program, who are now my most-logical pick to win the West. The heart says La Salle, but the brain’s telling me Arizona’s got this region.

9:45 pm: Syracuse over Indiana – Holy upset special, Batman! Gonzaga might have been the only one-seed not to make it to the Sweet 16, but my bracket has two more of them falling to four-seeds in this round. The Hoosiers suffered a third-round scare against a Temple team that tied with La Salle in the A-10 standings, while only mustering 58 points on a mere 45 attempts. Had the Owls been able to get it going from beyond the arc (3-24, hoot!), it might have been goodnight for the Big 10 champs. Enter the Orange, a team that held its first two tournament foes to a mere 47 points per game. Sure, they weren’t so impressive against Cal, but Syracuse still went 12 minutes–that’s an entire NBA quarter of basketball–without hitting a field goal, yet managed to win the game. Hey, defense wins championships, right? (I have ‘em losing to Miami in the next round though, heh heh.)

The round of 32: Gonzaga’s worst nightmare!

Posted by gruesomegreg on March 24, 2013

Call it the Calgary curse: From 1989 to 2004, the Calgary Flames couldn’t win a playoff series. Of course, they went all the way to the finals in ’04, and won the Cup in ’89–but they hadn’t won a single seven-game series in the interim–and they haven’t won another playoff series since. (They haven’t made the playoffs in the past three seasons, but don’t even get me started…) Likewise, the Gonzaga men’s basketball team, which captivated Calgarians (via our US network affiliates in Spokane) during their magical run to the Elite Eight in ’99, has faced a similar roadblock. After back-to-back Sweet 16s in the two years following their grand entrance on the national stage, they’ve only made it past the first weekend of the tournament twice, in ’06 and ’09. In fact, March Madness 2013 marks the fourth straight year that Gonzaga has lost in the second round. Ouch!

Of course, things were supposed to be different this year. In tourneys past, the Zags found themselves seeded somewhere between 7th and 10th, pitting them against a tough opponent (Syracuse, BYU, Ohio State) in the round of 32. But after a couple big blowout losses, they turned a corner in 2012, taking the second-seeded Buckeyes down to the wire. I actually had GU in my Sweet 16 last year, though it was not to be. But that’s nothing compared to this season, when I actually picked the Zags to go all the way–and I wasn’t the only one, either.

Despite the disappointing finish, Gonzaga still had a magical run this year, capturing the number-one ranking before storming through the WCC tournament in Las ZAGas. With the addition of Kelly Olynyk to a solid frontcourt, it was starting to seem like they’d found the missing piece to finally lead them to their first Final Four. But despite his 26 points and nine rebounds, KO only shot 8-22 (.364) from the field, a far cry from his season’s average of 63 per cent. And when Wichita State started hitting everything from behind the arc late in the second half, the Zags abandoned the inside game altogether–but they just couldn’t match the Shockers’ shocking 50 per cent pace from downtown.

Full credit to Wichita State. They earned that win. I could make excuses about Gonzaga missing FGs early and FTs late, or about Gary Bell, the Bulldogs’ best perimeter defender, missing most of the second half with a sprained ankle–but the fact of the matter is that WSU shot their way back into that game, with everyone from power forward Cleanthony Henry to reserve guard Fred Van Fleet making more than they missed from behind the arc. In fact, if you subtract Malcolm Armstead, their top backcourt scorer’s 1-6 performance, the rest of the team shot 60 per cent from 3. Now that’s how you shoot yourself into the Sweet 16!

Unfortunately for Gonzaga, if they’re to break on through next season, it might hafta be as a nine-seed. The Zags will most likely be looking at an entirely new frontcourt next year, with seniors Mike Hart and Elias Harris graduating and redshirt junior Kelly Olynyk–who’s already graduated–projected to be a first-round NBA pick. (Let’s just say I’ll be monitoring his Twitter feed.) They might even be forced to employ a three-guard lineup of Stockton, Pangos and Bell for significant stretches. But hey, a starting five of Pangos, Bell, Barham, Downer and Karnowski could still win the WCC next season, what with St. Mary’s and BYU also losing some key players. Whether or not they advance past the first weekend, I still expect the Zags’ 15-year tournament streak to be extended in 2014.

…

Suffice to say my bracket’s been busted and I’m staring at another 25th-place finish in my office pool, but I’m going to continue with my tournament picks, just for the metal health of it.

12:15 pm: Iowa State over Ohio State – I actually had Notre Dame winning this second-round matchup, but the Cyclones dispatched them so thoroughly that I might as well throw my weight behind ISU. Ohio State barely survived a second-round scare against an Olynyk-less Gonzaga team last year, and while they haven’t lost to a unranked team all season–neither had Gonzaga until the Thrifty Thirty-Two. Not to mention that OSU’s the only top-five seed remaining in the Wild Wild West region, and I’d kinda like to see La Salle in the Final Four.

2:45 pm: Indiana over Temple – While I do think a second number-one will fall today, I don’t expect it to be the Hoosiers, who are one of the top five teams in the country. Temple barely squeaked past the Wolfpack in the second round, very nearly coughing up a sizable lead. They can’t afford such a meltdown against Zeller, Oladipo and company–or this one won’t even be close.

5:15 pm: North Carolina over Kansas – I may have picked KU (over Villanova) in my bracket, but I really think the Jayhawks are vulnerable here. After barely squeaking past a 16-seed, they now face a formidable foe in the third round–the venerable North Carolina Tarheels. UNC is 14th in the country in points and rebounds, and third (out of 300+ programs) in assists. Considering Kansas’s propensity to shit the bed in the tournament, I think the Heels can pull off the upset. (Hey, I had the Hawks losing to Michigan in the Sweet 16, anyways.)

6:10 pm: Florida over Minnesota – According to famed stats guru Nate Silver, Florida has the best statistical probability of winning the South region. Then again, he also gave Gonzaga a narrow edge over OSU in the West. But nevertheless, the SEC regular-season champs are a pretty strong team. Any doubts that might have crept in after losing the conference tourney to Ole Miss were quickly dispatched with a dominant performance in the first round. Meanwhile, the Gophers certainly surprised some with a 20-point win over sixth-seeded UCLA, and they have a knack for knocking off top teams (including Memphis, Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin and top-ranked-at-the-time Indiana), but I don’t think they have the offensive firepower (just one player averages over 11 ppg) to upset Florida.

7:10 pm: Florida Gulf Coast over San Diego State – A 15-seed in the Sweet 16!? Hey, it could happen. Knocking off Georgetown gives FGCU a relatively easy second-round matchup against an SDSU squad that finished fourth in the Mountain West, a conference with no remaining teams in the tourney. As a matter of fact, the second-round win wasn’t Gulf Coast’s only big upset this season. They also held Miami to 51 points in a 12-point victory way back in November. Hey, I’d take Miami or Georgetown over San Diego State any day–and by extension, I like the A-Sun champs in this one.

7:40 pm: Ole Miss over La Salle – Now I said I’d like to see La Salle in the Final Four, but that doesn’t mean I’m picking them to get there. However, the winner of this 12 vs 13 matchup will at least advance to the Sweet 16, where the Wichita State Zag-Shockers await. The A-10 also-rans (fifth in their conference) had one heckuva first half against Kansas State, scoring 44 points, but instead of keeping up their 88-point pace, they managed just 19 in the second half to narrowly pull off the upset. On the other hand, the Rebels came on strong in the second, outscoring Wisconsin by 14 to win by 11. The SEC tournament champs are in the top 20 nationwide in both points and rebounds, and were pretty much the only second-round upset pick that actually came through to me. In theory, they’re the favourites here, but I still like ‘em in the third. Ole Miss-Wichita State oughtta be a real barn-burner!

8:40 pm: Miami over Illinois – That Illinois-Colorado second-round matchup was a real ugly game. The Illni’s streaky three-point shooters went ice-cold in the second half, and were it not for an equally inept Colorado performance (both teams shot less than 35 per cent from the floor), the seven-seed would’ve been run out of the building. Enter the Hurricanes, who laid a 29-point lickin’ on Pacific in Round Two. I’ve got the Canes in my championship game, so bye-bye Illini!

9:40 pm: Duke over Creighton – This game could certainly be closer than you think. (Then again, I thought Cincinnati would be here.) The Missouri Valley champs, soon to join the Big East, earned a hard-fought win over the Bearcats on Friday, but this is still a mid-major program that lost to Boise State, Wichita State and Saint Mary’s–not to mention Illinois State, Indiana State and Northern Iowa. And while Duke is almost as bad as Kansas when it comes to losing early-round games in which they’re heavily favoured, I still think they’ll survive this one–only to lose to MSU in the Sweet 16.

It’s time to shock the Shockers into submission… Zag up!

Posted by gruesomegreg on March 23, 2013

Gonzaga’s path to the Final Four just got a lot easier yesterday. After they defeat Wichita State, GU will face either a 12 or a 13-seed in the Sweet 16. And yes, I am saying they will beat State. At least they better–the Zags are the only team left in my West bracket!

Granted, I didn’t see every second of the Shockers’ first-round win over Pittsburgh, since there were two other great games going on at the time. But although the MVC runners-up cruised to victory, I saw a stretch in the second half that assured me of a Gonzaga win in the third round.

See, the Pitt Panthers have a seven-foot freshman centre from New Zealand by the name of Steven Adams. The kid made the Big East All-Rookie Team, but is hardly a focal point of the Pitt offense, averaging almost as many rebounds (6.3) as points (7.2) per game. But he nearly doubled his season average in the second-round loss, going for 13 points and 11 boards on 5-of-7 shooting. Most of his scoring came in the second half, when his team, already down by quite a few points, decided to get him the ball. On three successive possessions, he drove to the basket and picked up the hoop and the harm. The Shockers couldn’t seem to stop him–and then I changed the channel to Memphis-St. Marys.

Now, Zags fans, who does the seven-foot, 250-pound international player remind you of? Oh I dunno, a certain 2013 lottery pick, perhaps? Of course, Kelly Olynyk has had similar stretches throughout the season where he took over a game and either kept or got the Zags back in it–including the start of the second half against Southern. I just don’t see any way the Shockers can stop themselves from getting KO’ed. They do have a seven-foot Nigerian centre, Ehimen Orukpe, but he only averages 15 minutes per game, in which his point total (2.8) barely eclipses the number of fouls he commits (2.1). Methinks he’ll get banished to the bench in no time after a couple quick whistles guarding the best Canadian big man since Bill Wennington (which isn’t really saying much).

Not that Orukpe sees much more court time than Officer Krupke, anyways. (Sorry, I couldn’t resist.) Wichita State is a three-guard team that most commonly employs a frontcourt of Carl Hall, who looks smaller on TV than his listed 6’8″, and Cleanthony Early, also listed at 6’8″–and a mere 215 pounds. The Gonzaga bigs’ll eat ‘em for breakfast like a pound of Canadian Bacon! And since the Shockers’ O runs through their not-quite-as-bigs, the Zags can assign Gary Bell to Malcolm Armstead, the lone backcourt scoring threat. Will Bell playing lockdown D and the Shockers’ posts in foul trouble, they shouldn’t match their 69-point season average. Gonzaga 78, Wichita State 62.

Like I said, my West bracket is all but busted, with only Gonzaga staying alive. But in every other region, I had three of my four Sweet 16 teams advance to the third round. With the exception of New Mexico’s early exit, my Elite Eight is otherwise intact. So I can still salvage this bracket–if all my Final Four teams advance. Here’s who else I like today:

12:15 pm: Michigan over VCU – This could be a tough test for the Wolverines, as Virginia Commonwealth posted one of the biggest blowouts of the second round–in a 5-12 matchup, no less! But suffice to say the Maize-and-Blue are a significant step up in competition from the Akron Zips, who looked like more of a 16-seed than Southern (or Western Kentucky, for that matter). When facing top-quality competition, the Rams haven’t fared as well, losing to Duke, Missouri and Saint Louis–all at their own gym, no less! Sure, Michigan might have stumbled down the stretch, but this is still a Top-10 team that averaged almost as many points per game (75.2) as its high-flying opponent (78.0). I like the more battled-tested team in this one–all the way to the Final Four, in fact. Hey, Georgetown’s already gone and Kansas barely squeaked past a 16-seed. The winner of this game could certainly win the South…

2:45 pm: Michigan State over Memphis – Did I mention that both the Wolverines and the Spartans are playing at The Palace at Auburn Hills, in nearby suburban Detroit? The de-facto homecourt advantage helped both Great Lakes State schools to relatively comfortable second-round wins. On the other hand, Memphis was a rare missed Mouthguard Dellavadova buzzer-beater away from going home, proving my theory that the C-USA champs are overrated. Their tournament run ends today.

5:15 pm: Louisville over Colorado State – Some say the Midwest bracket was unkind to the one-seed, but I still think the Big East champs will easily dispose of the second-placed team in the Mountain West. Boy, would that bust a lotta brackets if Louisville lost, though! (Me, I’ve got ‘em in my Final Four…)

6:10 pm: Arizona over Harvard – I must admit, I had neither of these schools advancing in my bracket, as I’d picked Belmont, not Harvard, to pull the second-round upset. That said, I don’t think Harvard’s small-ball can match up with the length and athleticism of an Arizona program that has a seven-footer at centre and a pair of 6’7″ swingmen who can score in double-figures. Did I mention that the Crimson are ranked 334th in the country in rebounding? If the treys aren’t falling, they won’t get too many second chances. Alas, with the bottom half of my West bracket busted, I could easily see Arizona meeting Gonzaga in the Elite Eight…

7:10 pm: Saint Louis over Oregon – I actually had picked Oklahoma State in this matchup, but the Ducks easily disposed of them on Thursday. Likewise, the Billikens made quick work of a New Mexico State squad that plays three Canadians, holding their opponent to a mere 44 points. I can’t say I’m too familiar with either team, but seeing as Saint Loo kept VCU in check not once, but twice in conference play, they must have a pretty stifling D. So I’m gonna go with one of the most bizarre names in team sports. If there was a bracket for most-intimidating moniker, the Billikens would never make it past the first round. Mind you, neither would the Oregon Ducks.

7:45 pm: Butler over Marquette – I actually had Davidson in my Sweet 16, and were it not for a bone-headed press-break play, they’d be facing Butler tonight instead of Marquette. The Eagles’ narrow escape did nothing to inspire my confidence in them going forward, so I like Butler in its familiar underdog role here.

9:40 Syracuse over California – Like I said the other day, Big Sky champs Montana were chumps, the best of the bunch in a very weak basketball conference. But still, holding them to 34 points is pretty impressive, as was the Orange’s 47-point margin of victory, eclipsing even VCU. Does such a one-sided slaughter really prepare the team to play a very live underdog in Cal? Maybe not, but after facing Pitt, Georgetown and Louisville in back-to-back-to-back days during the Big East tournament, I wouldn’t doubt Syracuse’s level of readiness. And while their victory over UNLV was impressive, I still consider Cal to be one of the weakest at-large teams in the field. The Cuse might not win by 47 tonight, but 17 points? I could see that.

Well that was a little too close for comfort…

Posted by gruesomegreg on March 22, 2013

A 9-7 record on day one of the tournament does not a championship bracket make. I just narrowly missed on a couple of my upset picks yesterday, namely Saint Mary’s and Davidson, while Harvard busted the bottom half of my West bracket. See, I knew a 14 would beat a 3 this year, I just didn’t know which one.

Of course, my entire bracket would’ve been toilet paper had Gonzaga gone down to Southern. Sure, they played in a crappy conference, but they sure seemed stronger than your typical 16-seed to me (case in point: NC A&T). That said, while the SWAC champs kept the game close with their outside shooting, the better team won yesterday. Kelly Olynyk took over early in the second half, as the Jaguars didn’t have anyone who could stop the seven-footer from getting to the rim. And late in the game, Kevin Pangos shone with some deft passes and big baskets–including the two free-throws that sealed the deal. Captain Canuck (hey, Steve Nash hasn’t played for the national team since 2004!) tends to play his best ball in big games, though he has a bad habit of stinking up the gym the next night. Then again, he’s still only a sophomore… And even if Pangos stumbles, there’s always room for Olynyk. Seeing as their second-round opponent’s best big man is generously listed at 6’8″ (they have a seven-footer, but he only plays 15 minutes a game), methinks KO will TKO the Shockers in Round 3.

As for my bracket, well, if I’m going to ride Gonzaga all the way to the office-pool crown, I’m gonna hafta hit a few more of these picks today:

12:15 pm: Duke over Albany – Sure, the Dookies have lost to a 15 before. Even before they fell to Lehigh last year, they made waves by barely squeaking past Belmont in ’08. Of course, sandwiched between those two games are a national title and a pair of Sweet 16 appearances. Aside from sporting one of the least-intimidating names in the tourney (Great Danes? Really?), Albany only averages 64.4 points per game. To upset the Devils, you’re gonna hafta put up 70+. Sorry Fido.

12:40 pm: Ole Miss over Wisconsin – Hey, we already had two 12-seeds advance yesterday, so why not a third? Truth be told, Ole Miss was the lone 12-5 upset I had in my bracket, but I’m sticking with the SEC’s second-best team and their 78 ppg (seventh in the country) over a much less explosive (66.2) Wisconsin squad.

1:40 pm: Temple over N.C. State – I went 1-1 in these 8-9 toss-ups yesterday, and it’s safe to say I don’t have the winner of this one advancing past Indiana in my bracket. But I’m taking the Owls, a team that beast Syracuse and VCU and showed they could hang with Kansas and Butler. The Wolfpack upset Duke in January, but some ugly losses to lesser ACC foes have me leaning the other way in this total crapshoot.

2:10 pm: Miami over Pacific – Hey, the Tigers might be joining the WCC next season, but there’s no way I’d pick them over a Miami team that’s been ranked as high as number two. In fact, I’ve got the Canes in my Final Four, and considering that this Pacific team lost by 18 to Gonzaga and 28 at Saint Mary’s, I’d expect nothing less than a blowout here.

2:45 pm: Cincinnati over Creighton — The 7-10 matchup can always be intriguing, and the committee has saved all four of them for today’s schedule. These are the games that could make or break a bracket–especially since the winner of one of said contests has occasionally gone on to upset the two-seed in the next round. Well, I don’t see Cincy knocking off Duke, but despite being right in the middle of the Big East pack (9-9 in conference play), they’ve still beaten Pitt and Marquette, the latter of whom was considered a three-seed by the selection committee. On the other hand, Creighton is a big fish in a small pond. The #22 Blue Jays haven’t played a ranked opponent all year in the two-bid Missouri Valley Conference, and my most vivid memory of their team was them was getting whooped by Saint Mary’s (a game that wasn’t as close as its final score indicated). Again, I’m not saying they couldn’t win this game–hell, they’re the best field-goal shooting team in America–but I’m still hoping I can hit on this upset pick.

3:10 pm: Kansas State over La Salle — Man, I’m glad this game is on Tru TV, so there’s no chance of Bill Raftery, La Salle’s most famous alum (and CBS’s most annoying commentator) describing it. The Explorers (apparently, that’s what the team is called) won a play-in game over Boise State to be here, and have beaten Butler and VCU in A-10 play despite their gawd-awful rebounding numbers (31.7 per game, 292nd in the country). K-State might not own the glass in this one (35.3 rpg), but the second-best team in the Big 12 should have no trouble otherwise stuffing the stat sheet.

4:10 pm: Indiana over James Madison — A cursory glance shows that James Madison, which finished fourth in the Colonial Athletic Association before winning the conference tournament, is not another Southern. Their 21-14 record against a non-tournament-caliber field (aside from a season-opening 30-point loss to UCLA) warranted them winning a play-in game to get here. How the top-ranked team in the country ended up with the toughest 1-16 matchup is beyond me, but I digress. I don’t have Indiana in my Final Four, or even my Elite Eight, but I do have them beating James Madison in the second round.

4:40 pm: Illinois over Colorado – Okay, I’ll admit that I might have underestimated the Pac-12, which went 3-0 yesterday with a pair of 12 seeds advancing. But in this 7-10 matchup, I’m going with one of the two teams that actually beat both Gonzaga and Indiana this year. Illinois’ senior leader Brandon Paul brings the noise to the tune of 16.6 points per game, and he nailed some big buckets (35 points, to be precise) in handing the Zags a rare home loss back in December. As for the fifth-ranked team in the Pac-12, well, they should bring a loud, raucous, drunken cheering section to Austin, if nothing else. These Buffs hog the ball like their seniors hog the beer bong at a tailgate–averaging a mere 10 assists per game. Hey, pass that thing over here, will ya?

6:50 pm: Georgetown over Florida Gulf Coast – With all the 7-10 matchups today, you’d think the committee could’ve drawn up a better prime-time schedule. Instead we get two 2 vs 15s and a 3-14 whose 3-seed, Florida, are being placed in several brackets’ Final Four. North Carolina-Villanova should be entertaining, if largely irrelevant–but I think I might skip this slate altogether. (Hey, sometimes you need to take a break from drinking in front of the TV to go out and drink with other people!) But speaking of Florida, I’ve got them beating Georgetown in the Sweet 16. I trust that both teams will make it there without too much trouble…

7:15 pm: Ohio State over Iona – Another 2-15 matchup that probably won’t even be close. Some people like OSU to win the West, me I’ve got ‘em losing to Notre Dame in the third round. Iona is actually the second-highest-scoring team in the country (80.2 ppg), but it would certainly shock the world if they were to win this one. Their only tournament-caliber opponents were both part of the First Four–and La Salle actually beat these Gaels.

7:20 pm: Villanova over North Carolina – The only toss-up of the early-evening slate sees the winner earn the right to lose to Kansas. Nova isn’t fielding its strongest team, but to finish eighth in a conference where the top six teams are all ranked in the Top 25–and to post a winning record (10-8) in the process–is a reasonably impressive achievement. In fact, the Wildcats’ resume includes wins over Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette and Georgetown, who could all advance to the Sweet 16. UNC’s only win over a ranked team was against UNLV–and the Rebs lost in the first round. Even if I’m taking the nine-seed, I don’t really see this as an upset.

7:27 pm: Florida over Northwestern State – Northwestern State? Really? The Southland Conference (home of such powerhouse programs as Stephen F. Austin and Oral Roberts) champs only played one tournament team all season–and lost to Oklahoma–yet they’re a 14-seed? Pretty sure Gonzaga could beat ‘em by more than six points, just sayin’. Then again, so should Florida…

9:20 pm: San Diego State over Oklahoma — Speaking of the Sooners, Gonzaga beat ‘em by 25 back in November. Their most impressive win was a home victory over Kansas, but they lost to Iowa State in the Big 12 quarterfinals. Boomer Sooner’s mediocrity in the Big 12 is matched only by the Aztecs meh record in the Mountain West, which actually sent five teams to the tourney this year–three of whom have already gone home. I admit, this is a total toss-up for me, but the OU squad that lost to Gonzaga in the Old Spice Classic couldn’t possibly have beaten Southern on its best day. I don’t think they’ll beat SDSU today, either.

9:45 pm: Notre Dame over Iowa State – Now this 7-10 matchup is hardly a toss-up in my books. The 23rd-ranked Irish have beaten Cincy, Villanova, Louisville, Pitt and Marquette in Big East play. The Cyclones’ biggest feat might be that they took Kansas to overtime twice–but lost both times. I’m not hating on the Big 12 or anything, but its fourth-ranked team also dropped games to Iowa and Texas Tech. They’d never make it in the Big East–or even the Catholic 7.

9:50 pm: Kansas over Western Kentucky – Don’t get me wrong, as sure as the grass is green, the sky is blue and the mailman doesn’t deliver on Sundays, Kansas will be upset in the NCAA tournament. I just don’t see it happening until the Sweet 16. (Go Wolverines!)

9:57 pm: UCLA over Minnesota – OK, so I was hating on the Pac-12 yesterday, but UCLA’s the only school from said conference that could actually steal recruits from Gonzaga. (Whether or not they can keep them in school for more than one year might be a different story.) They’re also the only Pac-12 team I had advancing past the second round–but good luck against Florida on Sunday.

It’s that time of year again… (Gonzaga all the way!)

Posted by gruesomegreg on March 20, 2013

Call me crazy, but this is the first year I can confidently select Gonzaga as NCAA champs in my bracket. I may be a long-time Zags fan, but I’m not rabid enough to name them national champions every time I put money on the tourney. (I finished last in last year’s office pool anyways!) In fact, I haven’t advanced GU to the Final Four in my pool since 2006–and Adam Morrison would prefer we not speak of that game again.

But this year, I’m not the only one going with Gonzaga all the way. Even Nate Silver, who’s practically half-psychic, has the Zags in his Final Four. (It says here he picked Michigan to win it all in ’92–back when he was 14!) Hey, it’s hard to bet against the number one team in the country, who lost only two games all year–to eventual 6 and 7 seeds Butler and Illinois–and stormed through the WCC tournament, dominating a future 11 seed (via play-in) in the process. They may not be the number one overall seed, but they might have the easiest path to Atlanta, especially if Ohio State doesn’t make it to the Elite Eight for the rematch of a game GU almost stole in last year’s tourney–sans Olynyk, at that!

Of course, the key to Gonzaga’s success runs through the post, where the seven-footer from Kamloops is joined by NBA prospect Elias Harris, with reliable lefty Sam Dower and Shaqtastic freshman Przemek Karnowski coming off the bench, giving them four solid scorers 6’8″ or taller. Teams have had trouble matching up against the Bulldog bigs all season, creating wide-open looks for sharpshooters Kevin Pangos, Drew Barham and Gary Bell Jr. If the Zags get the inside-out game going, they could… go… all… the… way! Even Wally Szczerbiak, with his boyish good lucks and deadly jump shot, has pegged Gonzaga to win it all in his bracket. I’m not about to argue with a guy who scored 90 points in the ’99 Tourney!

Alas, GU kicks off the 2013 edition with a first-round matchup on Thursday afternoon against Southern, a school so small they couldn’t fit another word onto their jerseys. (Southern Where?) The SWAC champs, best known for their football rivalry with Grambling State, posted a 23-9 record on the season, but have just one semi-notable non-conference win, a 53-51 squeaker over a Texas A&M team that finished 11th in the SEC. Playing in a conference in which just two other teams posted an overall winning record (Grambling was 0-28, if you can believe that!), Southern barely eked out a 45-44 win in the SWAC final en route to a 16th seed. Suffice to say, their trip to the NCAAs ends tomorrow. But hey, at least they beat Grambling… Gonzaga 78, Southern 45.

Here’s who else I’m picking in Thursday’s games:

12:15 pm: Michigan State over Valparasio — Remember Bryce Drew? The 6’3″ point guard hit a miraculous three-pointer at the buzzer to score a first-round upset of Ole Miss… back in 1998. Now the head coach at Valpo, the 38-year-old has long since used up all his eligibility–which means there’s no way the 14 seed upsets the ninth-ranked Spartans in their home state.

12:40 pm: Butler over Bucknell – Both of these schools are no stranger to upsets, with Bucknell famously knocking off Kansas in ’05 and scoring a slight upset over Arkansas the following year. But this is just their second tournament appearance since, and in the interim, Butler has been to two NCAA finals. Despite missing the tourney altogether last year, these Bulldogs are battle-tested, beating #1 Gonzaga at the buzzer and former #1 (currently #4) Indiana in OT. Suffice to say, they’ve outlasted much tougher foes than Bucknell–but look out for Davidson in the ~~second~~ third round!

1:40 pm: Pittsburgh over Wichita State — The winner of this game gets to go up against Gonzaga in the third round. For my money’s worth, that’s the Pitt Panthers, who got dissed with an eight-seed despite a top 20 ranking. I wouldn’t even think of picking Pittsburgh, a school that’s busted my bracket many times in the past with early exits, for an upset over GU–they’ve only one two of their last nine games against teams seeded ninth or higher, and are 0-4 as an eight-seed. But I still say they shock the Shockers, a school that lost to NIT-bound Tennessee and dropped two out of three to tourney-bound Creighton, including the MVC final.

2:10 pm: Saint Louis over New Mexico State — Saint Louis is a four-seed!? How did that happen? Well, it turns out the Billikens boast the best record in the Atlantic 10, a conference that also includes VCU and Butler. Sweeping the season series against both conference foes and knocking off 10th ranked New Mexico has landed St. Loo a top-15 ranking and a date with the other school from the Land of Enchantment. I suppose I’ll put them through–but I suspect they might fall in the next round.

2:45 pm: Saint Mary’s over Memphis — This is my first upset special of the day, and a game I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on–seeing as it’s on CBS. Gonzaga’s arch-rivals came up short against the Zags not once, not twice, but three times this season, though they went 28-3 against everyone else, including an otherwise undefeated run through the West Coast Conference. Plus. they’ll be bringing in some momentum from their play-in win over Middle Tennessee, a game in which Matthew “Mouthguard” Dellavedova, an invisible man throughout the WCC tourney (aside from a buzzer-beater vs USD), went off for 22, 6 and 4. Crikey mate! Some might see Memphis as a tournament dark horse, but Conference USA ain’t what it used to be. Southern Miss, who took the Tigers to double OT in the C-USA final, are a number-one seed… in the NIT. Going 16-0 in a one-bid league isn’t all that impressive IMO. (Plus, I always pick the WCC teams in the first round of the tourney.)

3:10 pm: Davidson over Marquette – Yes, you read that correctly. I’m taking the 14th-seeded Wildcats over the 15th-ranked Golden Eagles. With all the upsets in last year’s tourney (that I didn’t see coming), I’d almost be remiss not to pick at least one 14 seed to advance past the first round–and I like the Southern Conference champs, who went 17-1 in league play. Sure, they dropped a handful of non-conference games, including tilts against Gonzaga and Duke, but this team can really score, averaging almost 74 points per game. The more methodical Marquette offense (69 ppg) has proven to come up short on occasion, most notably in a shocking 49-47 loss to Green Bay. No, not the Packers–the University of Green Bay Phoenix, which finished 18-16 overall and just lost in the first round of the CIT. (Isn’t that a test, or something?) Should they fall tomorrow, this would only be the second-biggest upset the Eagles have faced this season.

4:40 pm: Oklahoma State over Oregon — The Pac-12 has been pretty whack on the hardwood of late, and thus its tournament champs, who won more games overall than anyone else in the conference, are only deemed worthy of a 12-seed. OSU bowed out early in the Big 12 tourney, but with wins over Kansas and Kansas State, along with one-point losses to Gonzaga and the Jayhawks (the latter in double OT), the Cowboys have clearly competed against much more talented teams than the Whack-12 has to offer. I’ve got ‘em riding all the way to the Sweet 16 in my bracket.

6:50 pm: Louisville over North Carolina A&T — Win the Big East tourney and you get a sweetheart date for the Big Dance. The second-ranked Cardinals scored the A&T Aggies, a team that didn’t even post a winning record in the MEAC. Yeah, meek is an appropriate moniker for a squad that finished 290th overall in points, 293rd in assists and 317th in field goal percentage. I didn’t even know Div I had that many schools! Don’t be surprised if TBS switches to a taping of Heidi at halftime or something…

7:15 pm: Michigan over South Dakota State – Though their second-round Big 10 tourney loss dropped the Wolverines to the bottom of the Top 10 (their conference has three schools ranked ahead of them!), I would not sleep on this team. The fact that they ended up in a region with Kansas and Georgetown, two notorious early-exiters, can only help their cause. Not gonna lie, I’ve got the Maize and Blue in my Final Four. This first round matchup against a Horizon League school with just one previous tournament appearance? Piece of cake!

7:20 pm: Belmont over Arizona – Ah, another Whack-12 team in the tournament. Considered by many to be the best of the bunch–and even ranked in the Top 10 for a few weeks–Arizona nevertheless lost seven conference games, dropping contests to the likes of Cal, Colorado and lowly USC. Belmont, which has a recent history of giving top teams all they can handle in the tourney (most notably losing 71-70 to Duke in ’08), blazed through the Ohio Valley Conference with their high-powered offense (77.2 ppg) posting the fourth-best shooting percentage in the entire country. These kids shot nearly 50 per cent from the floor (.494) as a team. My gut instinct tells me it’s typically the high-scoring teams that pull off tournament upsets, which is largely why I like Davidson–and also why I like Belmont to win its first NCAA tournament game in school history.

7:27 pm: UNLV over California – Wait, how did Cal even make it to the tourney? The Bears, a cut below the top three teams in the Whack-12 with a 20-11 overall record, tied for second in regular-season conference play–but lost to lowly Utah in the second round of the Whack-12 tourney. And yet, they ended up with the same seed as Oregon, the 26-8 tournament champs. Yeah, the Bears don’t belong here, and they shouldn’t last long against a UNLV team lead by Canadian freshman sensation Anthony Bennett. This might be the first time in a dog’s age that a 12 doesn’t beat a five–thanks in large part to the Whack-12.

9:20 pm: Colorado St. over Missouri – These 8-9 games are always a crapshoot–and often inconsequential, as the winner generally falls to the one-seed in the next round. Missouri is second in the country in rebounding, which is pretty impressive–but losses to the likes of Arkansas, LSU and Texas A&M? Not so much. And hey, the Tigers only averaged one more board a game than the Rams, who finished fourth in that stat category. Not that anyone keeps track of these things, but when was the last time two top-five rebounding teams tipped off against each other? There should be some epic box-outs in this one! For what it’s worth (the winner loses to Louisville on Saturday), I’m taking the Rams team that finished second in the rugged Mountain West, but it might depend on who vacuums more Spalding.

9:45 pm: Virginia Commonwealth over Akron – And here’s why I don’t think a 12 will beat a five this year. VCU, a true Cinderella story two years ago, is the higher seed in this matchup. They’re up against an Akron team from a one-bid league that’s never won a tournament game (in just three appearances). I don’t see the 12-seed prevailing in this one, either.

9:50 pm: New Mexico over Harvard – The 10th-ranked Lobos share the Salt Lake City regional site with Gonzaga, a locale much closer to New Mexico than it is to Hahvahd Yahd. With no impressive non-conference wins on their schedule–unless you count Cal, a team that really shouldn’t be here (see 7:27 pm), the Crimson don’t move me much. And despite five players on the roster at 6’8″ or taller, Harvard was a pitiful 334th in rebounding, with fewer than 30 per game. I take it those towering freshmen don’t see much playing time…

9:57 pm: Syracuse over Montana — The Montana Grizzlies are another one of those small conference schools that’s typically one-and-done. The Grizz are just 2-10 in tournament play–and one of those wins was in 1975. Since then, they’ve won just once in the NCAAs, a narrow upset of Nevada in ’06, while posting some awfully ugly losses. For instance, the Big Sky champs lost by 24 to typically low-scoring Wisconsin in last year’s Big Dance. The only thing impressive about their 19-1 conference record is that the Big Sky plays 20 conference games. Quick, name me another Big Sky school. If you said Weber State, congrats. If you said anything else, you must live in the Pacific Northwest–and might not be turning this game off at halftime to go to sleep. Me, I’ve got the ‘Cuse in my Elite Eight, so nothing less than a 30-point win will suffice–though I probably won’t stay up to see if they beat the spread.

Viva Las ZAGas!

Posted by gruesomegreg on March 13, 2013

Just got back from Las Vegas, and boy are my legs tired. You don’t realize it till you get there, but stuff isn’t all that close together on the strip. Sure, you could take a bus, but if it’s less than a 20-minute walk, you’ll probably get there faster on aching foot.

Then again, my soreness of legs could be from all that jumping up and down at the WCC tournament. There’s no doubt in my mind that Gonzaga solidified its number one ranking with a dominating performance, beating Loyola by 18 and Saint Mary’s by 14 in a couple games that weren’t as close as the final score indicated. That first half against LMU was awfully gut-wrenching, though. It’s probably just as well the Orleans Arena was a dry county (something tells me this is BYU’s fault), or they mighta run outta booze by halftime…

Things seemed alright at the opening tip, mind you.

Best thing about live college basketball? While you’re watching commercials, we’re watching cheerleaders!

After a lacklustre first half by both teams, the guards came out firing in the second, with Kevin Pangos and Anthony Ireland going mano-a-mano and trading some big early buckets. Thing is, Pangos had plenty of support from his teammates, while the other LMU players combined for just 29 points. Thus, it’s not hard to guess the winners in this post-game handshake…

Orleans by night. I took a wrong turn heading out of the arena, and ended up getting lost. Note to self: Always exit through the casino…

Though I had a decent vantage point for the semis (I stuck around to see St. Mary’s squeak past USD in OT–a harbinger of things to come), I upgraded for the final to a spot behind the basket, about a dozen rows up, giving me a much better view of the warmups.

Note that Harris took the opening tip this time…

(I’m pretty sure he made this shot, too–nice box-out by Hart!)

I was also within shouting distance of the small but vocal Gaels cheering section. Until their team was faced with an insurmountable deficit, that is.

Yes, Gonzaga has male cheerleaders. These guys could still kick your ass, though… (Especially if you go to Saint Mary’s!)

The Maries hit a buncha threes in garbage time, but all that did was delay the confetti.

GO GONZAGA! G-O-N-Z-A-G-A!

Gruesome Views

My thoughts on music, sports and life as a bilingual Alberta redneck in The Big Smoke

Tag Archives: March Madness

I stand by my NCAA finals prediction: Michigan 77, Louisville 76

NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP

FINAL FOUR: Can the Wichita State Shockers shock the world? (No, probably not…)

NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP

And then there were eight… including Wichita State!

More Sweet 16 picks from someone who doesn’t know shit about the Sweet 16…

Can the La Salle Expedition continue on to the Elite Eight?

The round of 32: Gonzaga’s worst nightmare!

It’s time to shock the Shockers into submission… Zag up!

Well that was a little too close for comfort…

It’s that time of year again… (Gonzaga all the way!)

Viva Las ZAGas!

GO GONZAGA! G-O-N-Z-A-G-A!

Follow “Gruesome Views”